What has driven the growth of Brazil´s residential electricity consumption during the last 19 years? An index decomposition analysis

Resumo

Residential electricity consumption in Brazil has been growing during the last few decades, creating a potential opportunity to expand energy efficiency measures. However, the dimension of the sector and its closed relationship with the economic, cultural, and demographic processes causes a certain complexity in the understanding of patterns of consumption, creating additional challenges to energy policies. This study analyzed and decomposed the Brazilian residential electricity consumption between the years of 2000 and 2018, by driving factors through the LMDI-I method and IDA index, on regional level. All the data were obtained by official sources in the country. The main results obtained were: (i) the increase of household numbers was found to be one of the main drivers of consumption growth; (ii) household income showed no control over consumption in hot climate regions, except in low- income households; (iii) tariff showed to impose restrictions on consumption, also mainly in low-income households. Unprecedentedly, the results showed that the electricity consumption in Brazil varies with population age, with a trend of consumption growth up to the age 59, and a sharp reduction from the age of 60. The study presents opportunities to be contemplated in research and in energy policies.