Demographic challenges as a threat to Armenia’s economic security: regional perspectives and mitigation strategies
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/1807-0337/e152553Keywords:
employment, migration, urbanisation, financial stability, labour resources.Abstract
This study examines the impact of demographic threats on Armenia’s economic security in the context of regional cooperation. The methodology is based on a comprehensive analysis of demographic and economic indicators and the identification of interrelationships between them. It is established that Armenia’s economic security largely depends on employment levels and the size of the economically active population, whereas low birth rates, population ageing and unstable migration constitute the main risks. Demographic analysis shows gradual urbanisation, with an increase of 84,000 people in the urban population, fluctuations in total population and uneven distribution of the labour force, which reduces the efficiency of participation in regional economic projects. A comparative analysis of Armenia alongside Georgia and Azerbaijan indicates that, in contrast to Armenia, Georgia exhibits a comparatively stable demographic condition characterised by low emigration, whereas Azerbaijan showcases elevated birth rates and a favourable migration balance, thereby enhancing its labour resources. Correlation analysis identifies strong positive relationships between labour resources and economic indicators: the employed population correlates with gross domestic product (GDP) (r=0.98) and GDP per capita (r=0.99), while the economically active population correlates with GDP (r=0.87) and external trade turnover (r=0.80). The size of the labour force is directly linked to national debt in US dollars (r=0.83) and inversely linked to the debt burden as a percentage of gross domestic product (r=-0.60). Urbanisation has a positive impact on economic growth (r=0.72) and foreign trade (r=0.89), although it intensifies disparities between urban and rural areas.
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