Desafios demográficos como ameaça à segurança econômica da Armênia: perspectivas regionais e estratégias de mitigação
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/1807-0337/e152553Palavras-chave:
emprego, migração, urbanização, estabilidade financeira, recursos de trabalho.Resumo
Este estudo examina o impacto das ameaças demográficas na segurança econômica da Armênia no contexto da cooperação regional. A metodologia baseia-se em uma análise abrangente de indicadores demográficos e econômicos e na identificação das inter-relações entre eles. Constatou-se que a segurança econômica da Armênia depende em grande parte dos níveis de emprego e do tamanho da população economicamente ativa, enquanto as baixas taxas de natalidade, o envelhecimento populacional e a migração instável constituem os principais riscos. A análise demográfica mostra uma urbanização gradual, com um aumento de 84.000 pessoas na população urbana, flutuações na população total e distribuição desigual da força de trabalho, o que reduz a eficiência da participação em projetos econômicos regionais. Uma análise comparativa da Armênia com a Geórgia e o Azerbaijão revela que a Geórgia mantém uma situação demográfica estável com baixa emigração, enquanto o Azerbaijão demonstra altas taxas de natalidade e um saldo migratório positivo, contribuindo para a expansão de seus recursos de mão de obra. A análise de correlação identifica fortes relações positivas entre os recursos de trabalho e os indicadores econômicos: a população empregada correlaciona-se com o produto interno bruto (PIB) (r=0,98) e o PIB per capita (r=0,99), enquanto a população economicamente ativa correlaciona-se com o PIB (r=0,87) e o volume de comércio exterior (r=0,80). O tamanho da força de trabalho está diretamente ligado à dívida nacional em dólares americanos (r=0,83) e inversamente ligado ao peso da dívida como percentagem do produto interno bruto (r=-0,60). A urbanização tem um impacto positivo no crescimento econômico (r=0,72) e no comércio exterior (r=0,89), embora intensifique as disparidades entre as áreas urbanas e rurais.
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