Parametric estimate of prison building frames’ costs using Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

Juvenile prisons, also known as socio-educational care centers (CAS), are buildings with unique characteristics, due to security demands. Its cost is composed of very special items and very different from conventional housing construction works. In these works, one of the services with the highest cost representation is security frames. According to Law 14.133/2021 (new bidding law) it is possible to use expedited budgeting techniques to estimate costs in the initial stages of the project. The present research aimed to develop a cost model for parametric (expedited) estimation of CAS security frames. The method consisted of collecting CAS cost data, with subsequent treatment by linear regression and Monte Carlo Simulation for model validation. The contribution of the present work consists in proposing an expedited cost model of CAS security frames, based on the internal and external perimeters of the units, in structural masonry walls, buildings in rectangular plan and designed according to Sinase rules, contributing to future budgets and audits of prison works with this typology.