A Guerra Russo-Ucraniana no Contexto Eurasiano

Autores

  • Gabriel Pessin

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22456/2178-8839.128040

Palavras-chave:

Rússia; Eurásia; Ucrânia; guerra

Resumo

A guerra entre Rússia e Ucrânia, iniciada em 2022 é um dos eventos de maior impacto das primeiras décadas do século XXI, pois ocorre no coração do continente eurasiano e envolve, direta ou indiretamente, grandes potências do sistema internacional. A presente análise de conjuntura do conflito tem como foco a disputa pela Eurásia e parte da perspectiva russa. A hipótese sustentada é a de que a guerra russo-ucraniana representa uma nova inflexão na política externa russa decorrente do fracasso de sua estratégia voltada para a Eurásia em curso desde 2012. Ao longo do texto é abordada a relevância da Eurásia no sistema internacional, o desenvolvimento da política externa russa, em especial a partir de 2012, a crise ucraniana de 2014 e o conflito referido. Ao final a análise discorre sobre os impactos do conflito para os alinhamentos na Eurásia e para a política externa russa.

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.

Referências

AMINEH, M. P. and HOUWELLING, H. China and the Transformation of the Post-Cold War Geopolitical Order. In AMINEH, M. Parvizi. State, Society and International Relations in Asia. Amsterdan: Amsterdan University Press, 2010.

AMINEH, M. P. and HOUWELLING, H. The Geopolitics of Power Projection in US Foreign Policy: From Colonization to Globalization. In AMINEH, M. P. and HOUWELLING, H. Central Eurasia in Global Politics: Conflict, Security and Development. Leiden: Brill: 2005.

BORDACHEV, Timofei V. On Early History and Geography of Russian Foreign Policy: The Origins of Modern Times a Hypothesis. Russia in Global Affairs. Moscow, vol. 20 nº 3, jul-sep, 2022, p. 71-93. Disponível em: https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/early-history-and-geography/. Último acesso em 20/10/2022.

BP. BP Statistical Review of World Energy. London, 2022.

BRZEZINSKI, Zbgniew. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives. New York: Basic Books, 1997.

CALDER, K. E. The New Continentalism : Energy and Twenty-First-Century Eurasian Geopolitics. London : Yale University Press, 2012.

CHOMSKY, Noam. Quem Manda no Mundo? São Paulo : Planeta, 2017.

KARAGANOV, Sergey. Russia’s new Foreign Policy: The Putin Doctrine. Russia Today. Moscow: 26/02.2022. Disponível em https://www.rt.com/russia/550271-putin-doctrine-foreign-policy/. Último acesso em: 26/02/2022.

KARAGANOV, Sergey. The Future of the Big Triangle. Moscow: Russia in Global Affairs, 2020.

KENNAN, George F. The Sources of Soviet Conduct (1947). In TUATHAIL, Gearóid Ó; DALBY, Simon; ROUTLEDGE, Paul. The Geopolitics Reader. New York: Routledge, 2003.

LUKYANOV, Fyodor. Farewell to Hegemony. Russia in Global Affairs. Moscow: vol. 19 nº 3, jul-sep, 2021, p. 5-8. Disponível em: https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/farewell-to-hegemony/. Último acesso em 20/10/2022.

MACKINDER, Halford J. Geographical Pivot of History (1904). In MACKINDER, Halford J. Democratic Ideals and Reality: A Study in the Politics of Reconstruction. Washington: National Defeense University Press, 1942.

PUTIN, Vladimir. A New Integration Project for Eurasia – The Future is Born Today. Russia Today. Moscow: 11/10/2011. Disponível em: <http://rt.com/politics/press/izvetzyia/integration-union-economic-future/en>. Último acesso em 11 /10/2011.

PUTIN, Vladimir. Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy. President of Russia Official Web Portal. Moscow: 10/02/2007. Disponível em: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24034. Ultimo acesso: 22/10/2022.

RAHMAN, As’ad. What Are the Minsk Agreements and What Are Their Role in the Russia-Ukraine Crisis? Global Research. Ontario: 22/02/2022. Disponível em: https://www.globalresearch.ca/what-minsk-agreements-what-their-role-russia-ukraine-crisis/5771776. Último acesso em 22/02/2022.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION: Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation 2000. Moscow : 11/02/2000. Disponível em: https://russiaeu.ru/en/russian-foreign-policy. Último acesso em 18/7/2017.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION: Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation 2008. Moscow, 20/03/2008. Disponível em: https://russiaeu.ru/en/russian-foreign-policy. Último acesso em 18/7/2017.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION: Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation 2013. Moscow : 10/02/2013. Disponível em: https://russiaeu.ru/en/russian-foreign-policy. Último acesso em 18/7/2017.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION: Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation 2016. Moscow : 30/11/2016. Disponível em: https://journal-neo.org/2021/08/27/turkey-in-the-language-struggle-with-russia-in-central-asia/. Último acesso em 18/7/2017.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION. On the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation. Moscow : 2021.

RT. Putin orders Russian military to 'secure the peace' in Donbass. Russia Today. Moscow: 21/02/2022a. Disponível em: https://www.rt.com/russia/550177-putin-decree-military-donbass/. Último acesso em 21/02/2022.

RT. Russian Gas in Demand Outside Europe. Russia Today. Moscow: 14/09/2022b. Disponível em: https://www.rt.com/business/562768-peskov-russia-gas-asia-europe/. Último acesso em 14/09/2022

SAKWA, Richard. Russia Against the Rest: The Post-Cold War Crisis of World Order. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018.

SIPRI. Military Expenditure by Region in Constant US dollars. SIPRI. Stockholm: 2021.

SPUTNIK INTERNATIONAL. Pentagon to Set Up New Military Command in Germany to Arm Ukraine. Sputnik International. Moscow: 30/09/2022a. Disponível em: https://sputniknews.com/20220930/pentagon-to-set-up-new-military-command-in-germany-to-arm-ukraine-report-says-1101363078.html. Último acesso em 30/09/2022.

SPUTNIK INTERNATIONAL. Sweden, US Sign New Military Cooperation Agreement, Reports Say. Sputnik International. Moscow: 16/10/2022b. Disponível em: https://sputniknews.com/20221016/sweden-us-sign-new-military-cooperation-agreement-reports-say-1101902379.html. Último acesso em 16/10/2022.

SPYKMAN, Nicholas J. America´s Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power. New Jersey: Transaction Publishers, 2008.

STUENKEL, Oliver. O Mundo Pós-Ocidental: Potências Emergentes e a Nova Ordem Global. Rio de Janeiro: Zahar, 2018.

SUSHENTSOV, Andrei. Russia-Ukraine: Quo Vadis? Valdai Club. Moscow: 26/02/2022. Disponível em: https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/russia-ukraine-quo-vadis-/. Último acesso em 26/02/2022.

TASS. UK follows EU’s suit, imposes sanctions against Iranian drone maker. TASS. Moscow: 20/20/2022. Endereço eletrônico: https://tass.com/world/1525561. Último acesso em 20/10/2022.

TRENIN, Dmitri. Post-Imperium: A Eurasian History. Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011.

TRENIN, Dmitri. Six Months into the Conflict, What Exactly Does Russia Hope to Achieve in Ukraine. Russia Council. Moscow: Endereço eletrônico: https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/comments/six-months-into-the-conflict-what-exactly-does-russia-hope-to-achieve-in-ukraine/. Último acesso em 19/10/2022.

TSUKANOV, Ilia. Gantz, Netanyahu Publicly Reject Sending Arms to Kiev After Moscow's Warning. Sputnik International. Moscow: 19/10/2022. Endereço eletrônico: https://sputniknews.com/20221019/gantz-netanyahu-publicly-reject-sending-arms-to-kiev-after-moscows-warning-1102072380.html. Último acesso em 19/10/22.

VINOKUROV, Evgeny; LIBMAN, Alexander. Eurasian Integration: Challenges of Transcontinental Regionalism. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012.

TSYGANKOV, Andrei. Russia and America: The Asymmetric Rivalry. Medford: Polity Press, 2019.

TSYGANKOV, Andrei. The Harvest of Globalization: How Russia Can Move from Confrontation to Construction. Russia in Global Affairs. Moscow: vol. 20, n. 3, jul-sep, 2022, p. 60-70. Disponível em: https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/harvest-of-globalism/. Último acesso em: 20/20/2022.

UNITED NATIONS. World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results. New York, 2022.

Downloads

Publicado

2022-12-09

Como Citar

Pessin, G. (2022). A Guerra Russo-Ucraniana no Contexto Eurasiano. Conjuntura Austral, 13(64), 16–24. https://doi.org/10.22456/2178-8839.128040

Edição

Seção

ANÁLISE DE CONJUNTURA