The Hegemony of volatility

the strategy of impetuosity and the reconfiguration of the global order (2024-2026)

Abstract

This Conjecture Analysis investigates the structural transformation of the international order in the 2024-2026 period, characterized by the consolidation of a U.S. foreign policy grounded in systemic uncertainty, economic coercion, and the weaponization of the Madman Theory. The central aim is to understand how great powers (China, Russia, European Union) and emerging powers from the Global South (Brazil) adapted their grand strategies to survive the collapse of multilateral predictability. Framed by Neoclassical Realism and in dialogue with the Machiavellian concepts of virtù and Fortuna, it is argued that hegemonic volatility has shifted from a negotiating tactic to a structuring principle of contemporary international relations. The methodology is based on a comparative qualitative analysis of official documents, global trade data, and diplomatic statements. The results indicate that state responses were mediated by domestic intervening variables: while China accelerated technological autonomy via "Dual Circulation" and Russia consolidated a war economy pivoting to Asia, the European Union suffered from political underbalancing.