Chips, poder e barganha
a disputa EUA-China e a tentativa de redesenhar o regime tecnológico global (2010-2025)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22456/2178-8839.148413Palavras-chave:
China; Interdependência Complexa; Guerra Fria Tecnológica.Resumo
Este artigo analisa a escalada da competição sino-estadunidense em comércio e tecnologia entre 2010 e 2025 à luz do modelo de “estrutura de poder por área temática” de Keohane e Nye. Argumenta-se que, ao detectar uma incongruência crescente entre sua posição estrutural e os benefícios do regime multilateral vigente, os Estados Unidos recorrem a instrumentos coercitivos seletivos – tarifas da Seção 301, inclusão de empresas na Entity List e, depois, o CHIPS and Science Act com controles extraterritoriais – para precipitar mudança abrupta nas normas de semicondutores e cadeias de suprimento digitais. A pesquisa emprega rastreamento de processo (process tracing) qualitativo, combinando documentos oficiais, estatísticas de comércio e literatura especializada. Conclui-se que a ofensiva estadunidense comprou tempo, mas não restaurou hegemonia: gerou substituição tecnológica parcial na China, maior incerteza na Organização Mundial do Comércio (OMC) e fragmentação normativa. Para o Sul Global, o cenário híbrido cria riscos, como alinhamento regulatório compulsório, e oportunidades, como a atração de investimento em encapsulamento de chips, valorização de minerais críticos e acesso a financiamento alternativo via Belt and Road Initiative. A capacidade desses países de transformar sensibilidade em poder de barganha tende a condicionar a magnitude de seus resultados.
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Aceito 2026-03-06
Publicado 2026-07-10
