PRACTICAL MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF OPERATIONAL CASH FLOW FOR COMMERCIAL COMPANIES, CONSIDERING THE RISK EFFECTS, THROUGH THE MONTE CARLO METHODOLOGY

Abstract

One way of evaluating the cash flow projections, considering the risks is using simulations based on the Monte Carlo (MMC). This methodology generates random figures for the expected revenue, based on the premises adopted. After the generation of each event, the present liquid value of the cash flow, generated in a distribution of accumulated frequency, so that the occurrence of probability could be done. This probability methodology has the advantage of considering the risk associated with the act of projection and measure such risk through the standard average deviation of the present liquid generated in each event. This article presents this methodology theoretically and is applied in a case-study for a commercial company. The conclusion of this article is a diagnosis of the business financial viability, under the point operational view.