TURKEY'S DILEMMA AND STRATEGIC STABILITY

Abstract

This article deals with Turkey’s international relations and the impact of its choices in the International System (IS) in this new era marked by the return of competition between the world powers. Specifically, it discusses the Turkish dilemma, reduced to two possible courses of action: between adherence to revolutionary behavior, or association with the institutions of the Emerging Industrial Axis. This dilemma is confronted with Turkey’s trajectory since the end of the Ottoman Empire, in an explanatory historical effort. As for strategic stability, it should be clarified that it is understood as the set of elements that shape the ‘rules’ of the game in a multipolar world. The question that guides the research is how will Turkey’s international insertion take place? The hypothesis that runs through the text is that, unlike other times when Turkey has been subjugated by international constraints, this time it will be able to choose its form of insertion into the IS. The article is divided into five parts. The first concerns the predominance of necessity in Turkey’s IR trajectory. The second deals with the legacy of extra-economic coercion, which the US used during unipolarity, and the challenges this poses for strategic stability - which must be approached from a multidimensional perspective. The third part deals with Turkey’s insertion into the South-South Axis - it remains to be seen whether it will also join its institutions. The fourth part deals with revolutionary behavior. Finally, the fifth and last part deals with the role of the Middle East in the outcome of the Turkish dilemma.