Trends in the international order and their effects on the Latin American chessboard
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22456/2178-8839.106944Keywords:
International trends, Liberal World Order, Latin American chessboardAbstract
The starting point of this article is that the so-called Liberal World Order is questioned by a set of global trends, among which the following stand out: the rise of China; the emergence and extension of illiberal political leadership; a certain degree of decline in free trade, in favour of less multilateral and more protectionist policies. The configuration of these global trends affects the margins of manoeuvre that Latin American countries have to design and execute their strategies for international insertion. For this reason, we propose to identify the most relevant global and Latin American trends while we assume that they constrain, and enable, affect and shape, to certain degrees and intensities, the dynamics of our region. By virtue of the foregoing, this article begins with the presentation of the foundations that account for the tensions experienced by the Liberal World Order based on the premises proposed by Haass (2018). Then identify and characterize the major global trends. Finally, it identifies the main regional trends: democratic recession, crisis of regionalisms and crisis of regional multilateral spaces, understanding that these are closely related to the global macro trend and the international trends.Downloads
References
ACHARYA, Amitav. After Liberal Hegemony: The Advent of a Multiplex World Order. Ethics and International Affairs, Volumen 31, Issue 3, pp. 271-285, 2017.
ALCÁNTARA, Manuel. De democracias fatigadas a democracias en cuarentena. 20 Mayo, 2020. Disponible en: https://latinoamerica21.com/de-democracias-fatigadas-a-democracias-en-cuarentena/. Acceso el 07 de agosto de 2020.
ALDEN, Chris; ARAN, Amnon. Foreign Policy Analysis. New Approaches. London and New York: Routledge and Francis and Taylor, 2017.
AMORIM, Celso. La oposición en Brasil recibe con recelos el acuerdo UE-Mercosur. Agencia EFE. Julio 1, 2019. Disponible en: https://www.efe.com/efe/america/economia/la-oposicion-en-brasil-recibe-con-recelos-el-acuerdo-ue-mercosur/20000011-4013621. Acceso el 15 de agosto de 2020.
AMORIN NETO, Octavio; MALAMUD, Andrés. What Determines Foreign Policy in Latin America? Systemic versus Domestic Factors in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico (1964-2008). Latin American Politics and Society, Volumen 57, Nº 4, pp. 1-27, 2015.
APARICIO, Mariana. El Caribe frente al mundo multipolar: Apuntes sobre el comercio y la política con Estados Unidos y la República Popular de China. CariCen. Nº 0. Centro de Estudios Latinoamericanos, Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, pp. 1-15, 2017.
ARON, Raymond. Paz y Guerra entre las Naciones. Revista de Occidente, Madrid, 1963.
BREUNING, Marijke. Foreign Policy Analysis: A Comparative Introduction. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007.
BRICEÑO RUIZ, José. Ejes y modelos en la etapa actual de la integración económica regional en América Latina. Estudios Internacionales, 45 (175), pp. 9-39, 2013.
BURCHILL, Scott. Liberalism. In: Burchill, S. Linklater, A. Devetak, R. Donnelly, J. Patterson, M. Reus Smit, C. & True, J. (Eds.). Theories of International Relations. New York: Palgrave-Macmillan, 2005, pp. 55-83.
BUSSO, Anabella. Estados Unidos y la redemocratización latinoamericana. Los condicionantes externos. Revista Estudios Internacionales, Nº 94, pp. 260-289, 1991.
BUSSO, Anabella. El vínculo entre los condicionantes internos y la política exterio. Reflexiones sobre el caso argentino. Ciclos, Volumen XXVI, Nº 52, pp. 3-32, 2019.
CARLSNAES, Walter. The Agency-Structure Problem in Foreign Policy Analysis. International Studies Quarterly, Volumen 36, Nº 3, pp. 245-270, 1992.
CARR, Edward. La crisis de los veinte años (1919-1939). Madrid: La Catarata, 2004.
DA MOTTA VEIGA, Pedro; RÍOS, Sandra. O Regionalismo pós-liberal, na América do Sul: origens, iniciativas e dilemas. CEPAL, 82, pp. 1-48, 2007.
DIAMINT, Rut. ¿Quién custodia a los custodios? Democracia y uso de la fuerza en América Latina. Nueva Sociedad, N° 278, pp. 24-35, 2018.
DOYLE, Michael. Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs. Part I. Philosophy and Public Affairs, Volumen 12, N° 3, pp. 205-235, 1998a.
DOYLE, Michael. Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs. Part II. Philosophy and Public Affairs, Volumen 12, N° 4, pp. 323-353, 1998b.
DUARTE GAMBOA, Eric Emmanuel. La CELAC en el nuevo escenario regional. Febrero 6, 2019. Disponible en: http://revistafal.com/la-celac-en-el-nuevo-escenario-regional/. Acceso el 20 de agosto de 2020.
DUSSEL PETERS, Enrique. Comercio y relaciones estratégicas entre América Latina y el Caribe y la República Popular China. In: Bonilla, Adrián; Milet, Paz (Eds.). China en América Latina y el Caribe: Escenarios estratégicos subregionales. San José: FLACSO-CAF, 2015, pp. 23–50.
ELLIS, Evan. China in Latin America: The Whats and Wherefores. Estados Unidos: Lynne Rienner Publishers. 2009.
FEARON, James. Domestic politics, Foreign Policy, and Theories of International Relations. Annual Review of Political Science, Volumen 1, Nº 1, pp. 289-313, 1998.
FUKUYAMA, Francis. The Pandemic and Political Order. Foreign Affairs, 99 (4), pp. 26-32, 2020.
GILPIN, Robert. War and Change in world politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981.
HAASS, Richard. Liberal World Order, R.I.P. Project Syndicate. March 21, 2018. Disponible en: https://www.cfr.org/article/liberal-world-order-rip. Acceso el 25 de agosto de 2020.
HAASS, Richard. How a World Order Ends? Foreign Affairs, 98 (1), pp. 22-30, 2019.
HAASS, Richard. Present at the Disruption. How Trump Unmade U. S. Foreign Policy. Foreign Affairs, 99 (5), pp. 24-34, 2020.
HERRERA VINELLI, Lorena. Latin America in Light of China’s Global Economic Power: Brazil and Ecuador and Their Foreign Policies. A Comparative Study. Temas de Nuestra América. Revista de Estudios Latinoamericanos, Volumen 33, Nº 61, pp. 89–106, 2017.
HERRERA, Juan C. Prosur, el nuevo mecanismo para no integrar Latinoamérica. The New York Times. April 9, 2019. Disponible en: https://www.nytimes.com/es/2019/04/09/espanol/opinion/prosur-unasur-america-latina.html. Acceso el 16 de agosto de 2020.
HUDSON, Valerie. Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary Theory. Lanham. MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2007.
HUNTINGTON, Samuel. La tercera ola democratizadora. Buenos Aires: Paidós, 1991.
IKENBERRY, John. After Victory. Institutions, Strategic Restraint and the Rebuilding of Order after Major Wars. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2000.
IKENBERRY, John. The Plot Against America Foreign Policy. Can the Liberal Order Survive? 2017. Foreign Affairs. Disponible en https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2017-04-17/plot-against-american-foreign-policy.
KEGLEY, Charles. The Domestic Sources of American Foreign Policy. New York: St Martins Press, 1987.
KEOHANE, Robert; NYE, Joseph. Power and Interdependence: World politics in transition. Boston: Little, Brown, 1977.
LEGRO, Jeffrey; MORAVCSIK, Andrew. Is Anybody Still realist? International Security, Volumen 24, N° 2, pp. 5-55, 1999.
LIND, Jennifer; WOHLFORTH, William. The future of liberal order is conservative. Foreign Affairs, 98 (2), pp. 70-80, 2019.
LORENZINI, María Elena; PEREYRA DOVAL, Gisela. Posneoliberalismo y después. El Centro Relativo del Sistema Político y el ascenso de la Marea Celeste en el espejo de la Política Exterior de Argentina y Chile. Revista de Ciencia Política, 39 (3), pp. 435-457, 2019.
MAIRA, Luis. El sistema internacional y América Latina. ¿Una nueva era de hegemonía norteamericana. Buenos Aires: RIAL-Grupo Editor Latinoamericano, 1986.
MARCHAO, Talita. O que é o globalismo, em debate pelo Itamaraty, segundo oito especialistas. UOL Notícias. Mayo 27, 2019. Disponible en: https://noticias.uol.com.br/internacional/ultimas-noticias/2019/05/24/o-que-e-globalismo-que-sera-debatido-pelo-itamaraty.htm. Acceso el 10 de agosto de 2020.
MEARSHEIMER, John. The tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W. W. Norton Company, 2001.
MEARSHEIMER, John. The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities. New Haven and London: Yale University Press, 2018.
MEARSHEIMER, John. Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order. International Security, Volumen 43, Issue 4, pp. 7-50, 2019.
MORAVCSIK, Andrew. Integrating International and Domestic Theories of International Bargaining. En P. Evans; H. Jacobson; R. Putnam (Eds). Double Edged Diplomacy. International Bargaining and Domestic Politics. Los Ángeles: University of California, 1993.
MORGENTHAU, Hans. La lucha por el poder y por la paz. Buenos Aires: Sudamericana, 1963.
MUÑOZ, Heraldo. Las políticas exteriores de América Latina y el Caribe: Continuidad en la crisis. Anuario de Políticas Exteriores Latinoamericanas 1986. Buenos Aires: Grupo Editor Latinoamericano-PROSPEL, 1987.
NYE, Joseph. La naturaleza cambiante del poder. Buenos Aires: Grupo Editor Latinoamericano, 1991.
NYE, Joseph. Is the American Century Over? Political Science Quarterly, 130 (3), pp. 393-400, 2015.
NYE, Joseph. Will Liberal Order Survive? The History of an Idea. Foreign Affairs. 12 de diciembre, 2016.
NYE, Joseph. China’s Soft and Sharp Power. Project Syndicate. 4 de enero, 2018. Disponible en https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-soft-and-sharp-power-by-joseph-s--nye-2018-01?barrier=accesspaylog. Acceso 25 de agosto de 2020.
NYE, Joseph. Do morals matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy form FDR to Trump. New York: Oxford University Press, 2019.
PANIZZA, Francisco. La Marea Rosa. Correo Americano, 8, pp. 5-24, 2006.
PUTNAM, Robert. Diplomacia y política nacional: la lógica de los juegos de doble nivel. Zona Abierta, Nº 74, 1996.
RAPOPORT, Mario. Historia Política, Económica y Social de la Argentina (1980-2003). Buenos Aires: Ariel, 2004.
ROSE, Gideon. Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy. World Politics, Volumen 51, N° 1, pp. 144-172, 1998.
ROSENAU, James. Domestic Sources of Foreign Policy. Londres: Collier-Macmillan, 1967.
ROSENAU, James. Preteorías y teorías sobre política exterior. En Vázquez, John (Ed.) Relaciones Internacionales. El pensamiento de los clásicos. México: Ed. Limusa, 1994, pp. 207-2019.
RUSSELL, Roberto. Enfoques teóricos y metodológicos para el estudio de la política exterior. Buenos Aires: Grupo Editor Latinoamericano, 1992.
SANAHUJA, José Antonio. Del ‘regionalismo abierto’ al ‘regionalismo post-liberal’. Crisis y cambio en la integración regional en América Latina. Anuario de Integración, 7, pp. 12-54, 2009.
SANAHUJA, José Antonio. Enfoques diferenciados y marcos comunes en el regionalismo latinoamericano: alcance y perspectivas de UNASUR y CELAC. Pensamiento Propio, Nº 39, Año 19, pp. 75-108, 2014.
SANAHUJA, José Antonio. Regionalismo posliberal y multilateralismo en Sudámerica: el caso de Unasur. Anuario de Integración, 9, pp. 19-71, 2012.
SLIPAK, Ariel. América Latina y China: ¿cooperación sur-sur o consenso de Beijing? Nueva Sociedad, Nº 250, pp. 102–113, 2014.
STEWART, Patrick. Trump and the Liberal Order. The Return of Self-Help. Foreign Affairs, 13 de febrero 2017.
SVAMPA, Maristella. ‘Consenso de los Commodities’ y lenguajes de valoración en América Latina. Nueva Sociedad, N° 244, pp. 30-46, 2013.
SVAMPA, Maristella. América Latina: Fin de ciclo y populismos de alta intensidad. In: Gudynas, Eduardo; Svampa, Maristella; Machado, Decio; Acosta, Alberto; Cajas, John; Ugarteche, Óscar; Vargas, Virginia; Gandarillas, Marco; Zibechi, Raúl; Ciliberti, Lilian; Escobar, Arturo. Rescatar la esperanza. Más allá del neoliberalismo y del progresismo. Barcelona: Entre Pueblos, 2016, pp. 63-88.
SVAMPA, Maristella. Posprogresismos, polarización y democracia en Argentina y Brasil. Nueva Sociedad, N° 282, pp. 121-134, 2019.
TALIAFERRO, Jeffrey; LOBELL, Steven; RIPSMAN, Norris. Introduction: Neoclassical realism, the state and foreign policy. In: Lobell, Steven; Ripsman, Norris; Taliaferro, Jeffrey (Eds.). Neoclassical Realism, the State and Foreign Policy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009, pp. 1-41.
URBINATI, Nadia. The Pandemic Hasn’t Killed Populism. Foreign Affairs. August 6, 2020. Disponible en: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-06/pandemic-hasnt-killed-populism. Acceso el 10 de agosto de 2020.
VAN KLAVEREN, Alberto. Entendiendo las Políticas exteriores latinoamericanas: modelo para armar. Revista Estudios Internacionales, Nº 98, pp. 169-216, 1992.
WALKER, Christopher; LUDWIG, Jessica. The Meaning of Sharp Power: How Authoritarian States Project Influence. November 16, 2017. Foreign Affairs.
WALKER, Christopher. What is Sharp Power? Journal of Democracy, 29 (3), pp. 9-23, 2018.
WALT, Stephen. The Origins of Alliances. Ithaka: Cornell University Press, 1989.
WALT, Stephen. The Heel of Good Intentions. America’s Foreign Policy Elite and the Decline of U. S. Primacy. New York: Farrar-Straus-Giroux, 2018.
WALTZ, Kenneth. El hombre, el estado y la guerra. Buenos Aires: Editorial Nova, 1959.
WEYLAND, Kurt. The Threat from the Populist Left. Journal of Democracy, Volume 24, Number 3, pp. 18-32, 2013.
ZELICOVICH, Julieta. La “Guerra Comercial” como desafío al orden liberal internacional. Anuario en Relaciones Internacionales. Disponible en: http://www.iri.edu.ar/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/a2019economiaArticulosZelicovich-1.pdf. Acceso el 15 de agosto de 2020.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
a. Authors retain the copyright and grant the journal the right to first publication, with the work simultaneously licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License, which allows its use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, as well as its transformation and creations from it, as long as the original author and source are credited. Also, the material cannot be used for commercial purposes, and if it is transformed, or used as a basis for other creations, these must be distributed under the same license as the original.
b. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
c. Authors are allowed to deposit, in the repositories accepted by Conjuntura Austral, the preprint version of the manuscripts submitted to the journal prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access)
d. Authors are permitted and encouraged to publish and distribute online (in institutional and /or thematic repositories, on their personal pages, etc.) the postprint version of the manuscripts (accepted and published), without an embargo period.
e. Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South, imbued with the spirit of ensuring the protection of regional academic and scientific production in Open Access, is a signatory to the Mexico Declaration on the use of the Creative Commons BY-NC-SA license to guarantee the protection of academic and scientific production in open access.
Accepted 2020-09-22
Published 2020-09-30
