Can democracy survive without stable party systems?

Evidence from Latin America between 1945 and 2018

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DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22456/1982-5269.151298

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the impact of party system institutionalization (PSI) on democratic resilience in Latin America between 1945 and 2018. To this end, a survival analysis is conducted using a Cox proportional hazards model, employing democracy data from Boix, Miller, and Rosato, and electoral volatility data from Mainwaring and Su. The central hypothesis is that PSI is positively related to the survival of democracy in the region. Counterintuitively and contrary to literature, initial findings suggest that lower levels of PSI (higher volatility) appear to have a protective effect on democratic survival. However, the limited number of events constrains the potential of these findings, and the model did not pass robustness tests. Although the central hypothesis was not proven, this analysis contributes recent data to the debate on factors impacting the resilience of democracies in the region.
Keywords: Democracy; Party System; Survival Analysis; Latin America.

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Author Biography

José Guillermo Pérez-Camacho, Universidade de Campinas

José Guillermo Pérez-Camacho é doutorando em Ciência Política pela Universidade Estadual de Campinas (Unicamp). Mestre em Ciências Sociais pela Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) e especialista em Políticas Públicas para a Igualdade pelo CLACSO. Graduado em Sociologia pela Universidade Central da Venezuela (UCV) e membro da Associação Latino-Americana de Ciência Política (ALACIP).

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Published

2026-02-11

How to Cite

Pérez-Camacho, J. G. (2026). Can democracy survive without stable party systems? Evidence from Latin America between 1945 and 2018. Revista Debates, 19(3), 104–117. https://doi.org/10.22456/1982-5269.151298

Issue

Vol. 19 No. 3 (2025): From the eyes of democracy: 40 years after the end of militar dictatorship

Section

Dossier

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