SHOCKS IN ASSET PRICES AND THE DYNAMICS OF MACROECONOMIC POLICY DECISIONS: AN ANALYSIS OF THE FISCAL AND MONETARY RESPONSE TO A HOUSING BUBBLE

Abstract

The objective of this article is subdivided in the investigation of rational bubbles evidences in the housing prices and in the analysis of shock effects in these asset prices, in monetary and fiscal policy instruments. The discussion about bubbles was limited to the analysis between housing prices and their dividends through linear cointegration tests with structural break. The results suggested that there are evidences of bubbles in the Brazilian housing market. The subsequent discussion evaluated the effects of this shock on the behavior of inflation series, real GDP, household consumption, Selic rate, revenue and government expenditure, labor market and housing finance, through the SVAR model. In short, it was observed that the bubble stimulated fiscal activity in a pro-cyclical behavior. On the other hand, it was found that the monetary policy, aiming to stabilize the inflation and the product, has taken into account the possible destabilizing effects caused by the bubble.