METHODOLOGICAL PROPOSAL TO ESTIMATE NET EMPLOYMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND APPLICATION TO THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY

Abstract

The objective of this study was to estimate the effects of the international trade over the sectorial employment based on a methodological proposal that use data of Brazil National Accounts between 1990 and 2003. The main results showed that the balance of employment of the international trade of Brazil was negative during 1990-2001, even in years of surplus in commercial trade, due to export products of low aggregated value. The bigger negative balanced of employment occurred in 1991 and 1997, approximately 4% of the number of workers in economy, changing positive in 2002 and 2003. The Plano Real presented a employment cost between 1994/1995 of 1,38 millions jobs, 2,25% of workers in 1995. The international trade promoted larger inter-sectorial reallocation of employment in the years 1995, 1999 e 2002.