EXPORT PERFORMANCE IN SELECTED EMERGING ECONOMIES (BRAZIL, RUSSIA, INDIA, CHINA AND SOUTH AFRICA): VAR AND VEC MODELS

Abstract

This work aims to develop an empirical investigation on the main export determinants for the BRICS countries. The relevance of this empirical study is to compare among the selected emerging economies if the export determinants are distinct and to provide different lessons and subsidies to understand export dynamics for each one of these economies.  The VAR analysis reveals that external income is relevant for all economies with the exception of China; the Exchange rate is not significant for China and India; the investment rate has an important role except for South Africa; and technological effort is not relevant for Brazil and Russia. The results from the estimated VEC models indicate that the exchange rate is relevant for all economies except for India; external income was not significant for India and Russia; technological effort is not relevant only for the Brazilian economy; capital flows are not significant for South Africa and Russia; the investment rate is not statistically significant for Brazil and China; and the terms of trade is significant for Brazil and China.