FATORES DO CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO DA VENEZUELA, 1950/1998

Abstract

This paper employs an econometric model to study the main economic growth factors in Venezuela between 1950 and 1998. We use as explanatory variables: export growth, government expenditure growth and gross fixed capital formation growth. The main results reveal that 1% raise in export, gross fixed capital formation or expenditure growth increases GDP by 0.39%, 0.22% and 0.29%, respectively. We study the causality between these variables using a VAR. The results show a bi-causality between GDP and gross fixed capital formation and GDP and exports. There is no causality between export and expenditure growth or between gross fixed capital formation and expenditure growth. Although the gross fixed capital formation affects exportation as GDP affects expenditure growth (uni-causal). Probably, Venezuela does not have Dutch Disease, which means that the oil revenue can stimulate the economic growth, when it is applied in programs with focus on economic development.