EVOLUÇÃO SETORIAL DO ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA ENTRE 2002 E 2020: DO PASSADO AO FUTURO COM O MÉTODO DELPHI

Abstract

Dealing with the Delphi Method, this paper departed from the sectoral structure of the Brazilian economy in 2002, in order to forecast the shape of the expected structural change. Applying a detailed questionnaire concerned with the sectoral perspectives of employment, value added, final demand and gross output to 18 observers of the Brazilian scene, it was possible to build the input-output tables for 2010 and 2020. On the average, the opinions of the people interviewed pointed to important changes in the structure of employment and production. Their vision of the future, however, depicted only modest transformations on the primary distribution of income, in the involvement of the government sector with the distributive dimension of the action of society and, the structure of household consumption. The results achieved with this exercise suggest that the structural change of the country in the next 15 or 20 years needs to be more effective, in order to allow for the creation of a dynamic and egalitarian society.