ESCOLHA DE PORTFOLIO, INVESTIMENTO E NAO-NEUTRALIDADE DO MOEDA UMA CRÍTICA A TESE NEOCLÁSSICA DE NEUTRALIDADE DA MOEDA NO LONGO PRAZO

Abstract

The objective of the present article is to do a critical evaluation of the neoclassical thesis of long-run neutrality of money. We will argue that long-run neutrality of money is not a general result since it depends critically on a very particular hypothesis, that is, marginal productivity of capital is exogenous and independent of portfolio decisions taken by economic agents. In other words, long-run neutrality of money is not a direct result of the supposed convergence of real income towards its full employment level in the long-run; but also depends on the assumption of exogenous marginal productivity of capital. If this condition does not hold, than a once-and-for-all increase in money supply (a leftward shift of LM curve) will produce a reduction in real rate of return of capital assets, even if real income is on its full-employment level. This happens because an increase in money supply will produce a disequilibrium in money market, more precisely, a situation of excess supply of money which will induce economic agents to get ride of this excessive money by means of increasing their purchases of capital goods. Since real income is on its full-employment level, an increase in demand for capital goods will result in an increase of capital goods prices, thereby reducing real rate of return of capital assets. Money is not neutral in the long-run since it is capable to influence the composition of real output, even if its absolute level is constant, and the real rate of return of capital assets.