CICLOS E PREVISÃO CÍCLICO: O DEBATE TEÓRICO E UM MODELO DE INDICADORES ANTECEDENTES PARA O ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA

Abstract

The notion of business cycles has been instrumental for the analysis of short term movements of capitalist economies ever since its appearance in early XIXth Century. In the XXth Century, debates on cycles were extended to cover the development of cyclical indicators that could allow analysts to anticipate future movements, particularly turning points. The theoretical debate, characterized by the confrontation of monocausal approaches, helped little the construction of effective short term forecast models. Empirical research, however, was more fertile, allowing a large set of indicators to be developed. The best known of these indicators are known as composite leading indicators, proposed by Wesley Mitchell. The construction of these indicators spread out from the US to many countries, to help orient public and private policy-making. The Institute of Economics of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro has built a set of leading indicators for the Brazilian economy. The paper describes its main features.