UMA ANÁLISE DA BALANÇA COMERCIAL PELA ÓTICA DA CAPACIDADE PRODUTIVA DA INDÚSTRIA DE TRANSFORMAÇÃO

Abstract

This paper in tends to point out the balance of trade as one of the main barriers to the economic growth of Brazil. However, instead of inquiring in to the problems related to the exchange rates, it focuses on the role of the installed capabilities of the secondary sector and it determines the commercial deficit. This leads to an analysis at the Brazilian international trade policy in the period following Plan Real. Therefore, the paper establishes the relationship between these to variables with a brief overview of the different approaches taken by other authors about this subject. Secondly, the paper identifies the variations of the time series that describe the relationship between commercial deficit and the secondary sector. Finally, it analyses the identified periods with the conclusions reached in the work.