The 1974 elections and the future of bipartisanship in Rio Grande do Sul

Abstract

This article examines the consequences of the 1974 elections in Rio Grande do Sul, when the MDB party achieved a significant victory in around two thirds of the municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul. This victory raises the question of whether this event would indicate a lasting change in electoral preferences, challenging the traditional two-party structure present since 1950. Thus, the problem that guides this research is to understand whether the 1974 election would represent the end of this bipartisanship and the beginning of MDB’s political hegemony over the Rio Grande do Sul electorate, or whether it would be explained as a cyclical response within the elastic limits of the bipartisan structure. To this end, the 1974 electoral results are framed within the electoral sequence formed by the 1966, 1970 and 1974 elections, categorizing municipalities based on urban population to understand electoral trends in relation to relevant sociological variables. Preliminary conclusions indicate that the significant growth of the electorate between 1966 and 1974 and the tendency towards its increasing urbanization benefited MDB electorally, just as the support of bipartisanship in Rio Grande do Sul seems to be linked to ARENA’s ability to conduct campaigns that do not only mobilize its loyal electoral base, but also enable it to be attractive and competitive for the group of voters whose votes are decisive in the elections, since the contingent not intensely identified with a party seems to have found in MDB the most receptive channel to express their political opinions and feelings.