Preparing for Hybrid War

An analysis of Russian measures to counter foreign interference and color revolutions

Abstract

The recent conflict in Ukraine raised questions about Russian capacity to defend its strategic interests in a scenario of proxy confrontation against the United States and its European allies. Analyses that stand out highlight the accelerated “decoupling” from international institutions and mechanisms seen as deeply compromised with the interests of Western powers. Although discussions tend to emphasize Russian capacities in the economic and military areas, the preservation of the domestic political regime’s stability and legitimacy has been equally relevant to the Russian state’s geostrategic agenda. We argue such combined capacities have been built-up through a process of legal and institutional reform that took the last two decades. We suggest this process was guided by a specific comprehension about the phenomenon of hybrid war, consolidated in the same period among prominent members of the Russian Federation’s defense and security establishment. Lastly, we enumerate and interpret several successive Russian state decisions that raised its resilience in a scenario of growing hostilities with Western powers.