DETERMINANTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN BRAZIL FROM 1981 TO 2005: AN ANALYSIS ENPHASIZING THE SKILL OF THE PEOPLE IN A CONTEXT OF MORE TRADE OPENNESS

Abstract

This paper presents the main determinants of the unemployment in Brazil between 1981 and 2005, focused on the effects of the education (skill) and on the trade openness. Another purpose is to verify the best theory to the Brazilian reality: the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) model or the Skill-Biases Technological Change. The principal data source for this study is PNADs, from 1981 to 2005. Probit is the model used, having the individual condition to be or not unemployed as the dependent variable. One of the results is that the individual qualification is preponderant factor to determine unemployment in a context of larger trade openness with adoption of new technologies. Other individual characteristics as age, sex, home condition, geographical and metropolitan areas are also decisive for the probability unemployment. The results still point the importance of the economical growth to decrease unemployment. In the end, it the most appropriate model to explain the determinant of the unemployment in Brazil consists in the Technological Change with Inclination for Qualified Work.