WHAT DRIVES THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE BRAZILIAN REGIONAL BANKING SYSTEM?

A POST-KEYNESIAN PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

After Plano Real’s creation, the consolidation of the national financial sector allowed the growth of credit supply and economic development. According to the post-Keynesian theory, in addition to the analyses at national level, it is also necessary to evaluate the consolidation process from a regional perspective, because spatial composition may affect the determination of employment and income at a macroeconomic level. This article aims to evaluate the main factors affecting the regional development of the Brazilian banking sector, in the period between 2006 and 2017. In order to achieve these objectives, this study used as methodological strategies the calculation of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), the exploratory spatial data analysis from Moran's I statistic and Local Indicator of Association Spatial (LISA), and estimation of the autoregressive spatial models, spatial Durbin, spatial autocorrelation and spatial error, in fixed and random effect forms. The results indicate that the development of the banking sector in Brazil is conditioned by the preference for public and banks liquidity, the density of small companies intensive in capital, the credit density offered and employment.