BEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL

Autores

  • María de la Fe López-Domínguez Universidad Central de Venezuela
  • Sary Levy-Carciente Universidad Central de Venezuela
  • José Contreras Banco Central de Venezuela.
  • Pedro César Paiva-Mata Universidad Simón Bolivar

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22456/2176-5456.18272

Palavras-chave:

Oil market, Simulation model, System dynamics

Resumo

Energy largely determines the characteristics of the global economy, hence the importance of fully understanding the behavior of the oil market in its current geo-economic and political environment. Starting from the basic relations of the global oil market and their interactions with macroeconomic variables, a nonlinear dynamic, structural and systemic model for this market is developed, which simulates the price, production and consumption of oil, and the accumulation of inventories. Model tests show satisfactory performance in the simulation of the known past in a medium-term horizon, 1995-2008. A sensitivity study performed for the same period yield some interesting conclusions about the behavior of the global oil market, such as the irrelevance of the structural factors in the soaring rise in oil prices in 2008.

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Biografia do Autor

María de la Fe López-Domínguez, Universidad Central de Venezuela

Universidad Central de Venezuela. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales. Doctorado de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales. Candidato Doctoral

Sary Levy-Carciente, Universidad Central de Venezuela

Universidad Central de Venezuela. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales. Decana de la Facultad

José Contreras, Banco Central de Venezuela.

Banco Central de Venezuela. Oficina de Estudios Económicos

Pedro César Paiva-Mata, Universidad Simón Bolivar

Universidad Simón Bolívar. Departamento de Conversión y Transporte de Energía. Jefe del Departamento

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Publicado

2011-12-22

Como Citar

López-Domínguez, M. de la F., Levy-Carciente, S., Contreras, J., & Paiva-Mata, P. C. (2011). BEHAVIOR OF THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET (1995-2008) AS DESCRIBED BY A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL. Análise Econômica, 29(56). https://doi.org/10.22456/2176-5456.18272