UM ESTUDO EMPÍRICO DOS CICLOS POLÍTICO-ECONÔMICOS NO BRASIL

Athos Prates da Silveira Preussler, Marcelo Savino Portugal

Resumo


The political business cycle theory suggests that economic fluctuations can be explained by the electoral calendar. Knowing that economic performance has great influence in the electorate vote decision, the incumbent may try to manipulate the economy policy in order to maximize the chances of victory of the government candidate. Empirical studies that aimed to test this hypothesis have found evidence of political opportunism as much on macroeconomic variables as on the political economy instruments. The present paper has the objective to test the hypothesis of political opportunism on macroeconomic variables, on fiscal policy instruments and interest rates in Brazil between 1980 and 2000. The econometric tests we will use autoregressive integrated moved average models (ARIMA) with intercept dummy variables in the months that precede the elections. The results confirm the hypothesis of political opportunism in the inflation rate and in the total expenditure of the federal government.

Palavras-chave


Political business cycle. Political economy. Economic policy.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.22456/2176-5456.10740



 
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Indexadores


 PROPESQ  PROPESQ PROPESQ   PROPESQ      PERIÓDICOS UFRGS


 
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Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Faculdade de Ciências Econômicas
Revista Análise Econômica
ISSN 0102-9924 / e-ISSN 2176-5456